EDITORIAL: Becoming Predator Free and Why Facts Don't Change People's Minds

BARRY SCOTT (Trustee of AGBET and Editor of Environmental News)

Last year I was fortunate to visit Lord Howe Island, which I had been keen to do for some time because of its natural beauty and rich biodiversity, but also because it had recently become predator free – a first for a human occupied island. While New Zealand has an international reputation for clearing pests from islands and beginning to restore their biodiversity, this has yet to be attempted on a large island occupied by people – hence my interest in how they had achieved this on Lord Howe Island. While there I had the opportunity to meet and talk with Ian Hutton, naturalist and resident  for 44 years, who had a key role in eradication planning and operations. Planning to remove the rats from the island commenced in the late nineties, but it took close to 20 years  for the operation to get underway in 2019 because of the difficulties in getting what is now called the ‘social licence’ to use toxins for the eradication effort. Ian has kindly written an article about the background to and details of that operation for this issue, but what remains foremost in my mind from the conversation I had with him on Lord Howe was acknowledgment of the mistakes they made early on — trying to get the community on board through presentation of more information and facts. It was not until they started using some of the tools of social science that they started to make headway. In the end courage by island leaders was required  to proceed. 

The Local Board made the decision to proceed with the eradication plan even though some in the community were still not on board. The biodiversity outcome has been spectacular as you can read about in Ian’s article. But there have also been some unexpected economic benefits, with Lord Howe now a destination for high value eco-tourism.

Soon after that discussion with Ian I read in an Auckland Council Pest free Auckland newsletter a reference to an article in Biological Conservation titled “Why facts don’t change minds”(1). Although very much out of my normal sphere of science reading, I was fascinated that studies in cognitive science had some important messages for the communication of conservation research. The paper discusses four common myths about how to best communicate science for decision making, namely, that: (i) facts change minds, (ii) scientific literacy is the answer, (iii) changing individual minds will change social behaviour, and (iv) broad dissemination is best. Instead the author puts forward four alternative approaches to better support effective science communication and impact:

• Optimal decision-making occurs through group discussion that incorporates diversity of thought,

• Personal experience, embodied knowledge and storytelling are powerful approaches in conveying key messages

• Changing the physical and social environments often makes it easier for individuals to come on board, 

• Connectivity often occurs on the periphery through networks with strong social ties rather than through unstructured open networks such as Twitter/X or Facebook.

The author concludes that:

So what relevance does this quite complex research have for conservation on Aotea? Considerable I think, because mana whenua and many individuals and organisations have a vision of Aotea eventually becoming predator free. As Judy Gilbert puts it later in this issue: “Imagine if Aotea | Great Barrier was like Hauturu | Little Barrier. It would be magical. If only we had the courage to do it. Technically it is feasible but socially we are a long way off that license because we are not asking people.” She cites the work done in preparation for the Tū Mai Taonga (TMT) project, now led by Ngāti Rehua Ngātiwai ki Aotea Trust. Its foundation was set with interviews (mostly in person) conducted in the homes of residents and landowners in the north of the island. Results showed that almost everyone interviewed was supportive of the TMT goals, but some concerns about the ‘how’ were raised. The work programme is now in full swing, with the goal of developing “landscape-scale operational methodologies and building community support that open pathways to a predator free Aotea.” (See Kate Waterhouse’s piece on TMT’s impact for more).

So, while I agree with Judy that we need to continue the conversations about a predator-free Aotea, an obstacle is the absence of a clearly articulated, socially acceptable methodology to achieve it. The TMT feasibility study suggests that it will be feasible to remove feral cats from the island through ground operations but as we know that approach will not work for the rats – there are just too many of them. The best you can achieve is substantial suppression as demonstrated by Windy Hill Sanctuary using a combination of trapping with ground bait stations over a period of 25 years. Even a scaled-up version of what was done on Lord Howe Island (see following article) does not seem feasible given Aotea, at 28,500ha, is around 20 times the area of Lord Howe (1,455ha), has a much more complex geography, has a larger and much more dispersed resident population (1,200 versus 350), and is much more accessible, especially by boat, from the large metropolis of Auckland. Consequently we remain in a holding pattern waiting for those new technologies/methodologies to be developed, and for the big conversations to begin. 

Meanwhile DOC effort is now being directed at some of the bigger islands, including the uninhabited Auckland Island (our 5th largest island at 46,000 ha) and Rakiura (our 3rd largest island at 175,000 ha). 

Auckland Island has feral cats, pigs and mice, but no rats. Under the Maukahuka project(2), which is a partnership between DOC and Ngāi Tahu, the plan is to sequentially remove the pigs, then the mice and finally the feral cats. Pigs need to be removed first as they will interfere with the attempts to eradicate mice. While covid delayed this project, more than three years work has gone into the feasibility of eradicating these three predators. As a follow up to the feasibility study, aerial trials to remove feral cats using a novel meat bait laced with 1080 have been carried out on both Auckland and Rakiura Islands. Using the results from those trials a new mainland trial over a 5000 ha block in the Edwards Valley, north east of Hamner Springs, is planned for this winter. A large-scale trial over a 1000 ha targeting mice with a cereal bait containing a rodenticide has also been carried out. DOC estimate that the operational cost for the Maukahuka project would be $84 million over 10 years.

Similarly, an ambitious plan is underway for making Rakiura predator free. In July 2019 a memorandum of understanding was signed off by 13 parties committing them to the Predator free Rakiura project3. The governing body, Te Puka Rakiura Trust, has been established, with the initial goal of finalizing an implementation plan, progressing a biosecurity plan and delivering a research programme with Manaaki Whenua/Landcare Research. The ‘hit list’ will be possums, feral cats, hedgehogs, Norway rats, Ship rats and kiore, with white-tailed deer excluded at this stage. While some are sceptical of these lofty goals, Darius Fagan from the Te Puka Rakiura Trust, responds by saying:

Much will be learnt from the planned trials and research that is underway. But each island will be different and require island-specific approaches like Tū Mai Taonga. Ambitious, yes. But that is what New Zealand is known for.  

In conclusion, we should continue to promote the vision of a predator-free Aotea not only because of the enormous biodiversity gains it would lead to, including the opportunity to reintroduce many of the species that have been lost from the island such as kōkako, but also the economic and cultural benefits. To achieve that we’ll need collaboration between Ngāti Rehua Ngātiwai ki Aotea, DOC, Auckland Council, funders and the conservation community, a feasible and financially acceptable technical approach, and the social licence and leadership to proceed. 

Lord Howe Island has shown us it’s no good bombarding community with more science and information. People make their minds up about issues by drawing from a range of social and cultural cues and values. We all need to understand that context deeply on Aotea. In the end agreement from everyone is unlikely, and courage and leadership will be needed to have the conversations. Tū Mai Taonga are leading us down this track and we should be both inspired and informed by their progress and the progress of other iwi and communities across Aotearoa. Achieving the vision may seem daunting, but it’s not impossible and we will get there if we work systematically and collectively to achieve it. 

Barry is Deputy Chair of The Aotea Great Barrier Environmental Trust, member of the Aotea Caulerpa Response Team and Emeritus Professor at Massey University. He is involved in predator control work and forest restoration in Palmerston North and at Awana, Aotea/Great Barrier Island.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Jennifer Neads, Kim Bannister, Frances McClure and Kate Waterhouse for feedback on this editorial.

References

1. Anne H Toomey (2023). Why facts don’t change minds: Insights from cognitive science for the improved communication of conservation research. Biological Conservation 278: 109886

2. Restoring Auckland Island – the Maukahuka project https://www.doc.govt.nz/our-work/restoring-auckland-island  

3. RNZ Matthew Rosenberg, Local Democracy Reporter; 9 May 2024 https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/516440/work-progressing-to-eradicate-predators-from-rakiura-stewart-island#:~:text=An%20ambitious%20project%20to%20protect,an%20inhabited%20island%20if%20successful